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 investment decision


Large Language Model-Assisted Planning of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure with Real-World Case Study

Zheng, Xinda, Jiang, Canchen, Wang, Hao

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing demand for electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure presents significant planning challenges, requiring efficient strategies for investment and operation to deliver cost-effective charging services. However, the potential benefits of EV charging assignment, particularly in response to varying spatial-temporal patterns of charging demand, remain under-explored in infrastructure planning. This paper proposes an integrated approach that jointly optimizes investment decisions and charging assignments while accounting for spatial-temporal demand dynamics and their interdependencies. To support efficient model development, we leverage a large language model (LLM) to assist in generating and refining the mathematical formulation from structured natural-language descriptions, significantly reducing the modeling burden. The resulting optimization model enables optimal joint decision-making for investment and operation. Additionally, we propose a distributed optimization algorithm based on the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) to address computational complexity in high-dimensional scenarios, which can be executed on standard computing platforms. We validate our approach through a case study using 1.5 million real-world travel records from Chengdu, China, demonstrating a 30% reduction in total cost compared to a baseline without EV assignment.


Getting out of the Big-Muddy: Escalation of Commitment in LLMs

Barkett, Emilio, Long, Olivia, Kröger, Paul

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in autonomous decision-making roles across high-stakes domains. However, since models are trained on human-generated data, they may inherit cognitive biases that systematically distort human judgment, including escalation of commitment, where decision-makers continue investing in failing courses of action due to prior investment. Understanding when LLMs exhibit such biases presents a unique challenge. While these biases are well-documented in humans, it remains unclear whether they manifest consistently in LLMs or require specific triggering conditions. This paper investigates this question using a two-stage investment task across four experimental conditions: model as investor, model as advisor, multi-agent deliberation, and compound pressure scenario. Across N = 6,500 trials, we find that bias manifestation in LLMs is highly context-dependent. In individual decision-making contexts (Studies 1-2, N = 4,000), LLMs demonstrate strong rational cost-benefit logic with minimal escalation of commitment. However, multi-agent deliberation reveals a striking hierarchy effect (Study 3, N = 500): while asymmetrical hierarchies show moderate escalation rates (46.2%), symmetrical peer-based decision-making produces near-universal escalation (99.2%). Similarly, when subjected to compound organizational and personal pressures (Study 4, N = 2,000), models exhibit high degrees of escalation of commitment (68.95% average allocation to failing divisions). These findings reveal that LLM bias manifestation depends critically on social and organizational context rather than being inherent, with significant implications for the deployment of multi-agent systems and unsupervised operations where such conditions may emerge naturally.


InvestAlign: Overcoming Data Scarcity in Aligning Large Language Models with Investor Decision-Making Processes under Herd Behavior

Wang, Huisheng, Pan, Zhuoshi, Zhang, Hangjing, Liu, Mingxiao, Gao, Hanqing, Zhao, H. Vicky

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with investor decision-making processes under herd behavior is a critical challenge in behavioral finance, which grapples with a fundamental limitation: the scarcity of real-user data needed for Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT). While SFT can bridge the gap between LLM outputs and human behavioral patterns, its reliance on massive authentic data imposes substantial collection costs and privacy risks. We propose InvestAlign, a novel framework that constructs high-quality SFT datasets by leveraging theoretical solutions to similar and simple optimal investment problems rather than complex scenarios. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that training LLMs with InvestAlign-generated data achieves faster parameter convergence than using real-user data, suggesting superior learning efficiency. Furthermore, we develop InvestAgent, an LLM agent fine-tuned with InvestAlign, which demonstrates significantly closer alignment to real-user data than pre-SFT models in both simple and complex investment problems. This highlights our proposed InvestAlign as a promising approach with the potential to address complex optimal investment problems and align LLMs with investor decision-making processes under herd behavior. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/thu-social-network-research-group/InvestAlign.


Predicting Business Angel Early-Stage Decision Making Using AI

Katcharovski, Yan, Maxwell, Andrew L.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

External funding is crucial for early-stage ventures, particularly technology startups that require significant R&D investment. Business angels offer a critical source of funding, but their decision-making is often subjective and resource-intensive for both investor and entrepreneur. Much research has investigated this investment process to find the critical factors angels consider. One such tool, the Critical Factor Assessment (CFA), deployed more than 20,000 times by the Canadian Innovation Centre, has been evaluated post-decision and found to be significantly more accurate than investors' own decisions. However, a single CFA analysis requires three trained individuals and several days, limiting its adoption. This study builds on previous work validating the CFA to investigate whether the constraints inhibiting its adoption can be overcome using a trained AI model. In this research, we prompted multiple large language models (LLMs) to assign the eight CFA factors to a dataset of 600 transcribed, unstructured startup pitches seeking business angel funding with known investment outcomes. We then trained and evaluated machine learning classification models using the LLM-generated CFA scores as input features. Our best-performing model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (85.0% for predicting BA deal/no-deal outcomes) and exhibited significant correlation (Spearman's r = 0.896, p-value < 0.001) with conventional human-graded evaluations. The integration of AI-based feature extraction with a structured and validated decision-making framework yielded a scalable, reliable, and less-biased model for evaluating startup pitches, removing the constraints that previously limited adoption.


Explainable-AI powered stock price prediction using time series transformers: A Case Study on BIST100

Calik, Sukru Selim, Akyuz, Andac, Kilimci, Zeynep Hilal, Colak, Kerem

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Financial literacy is increasingly dependent on the ability to interpret complex financial data and utilize advanced forecasting tools. In this context, this study proposes a novel approach that combines transformer-based time series models with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to enhance the interpretability and accuracy of stock price predictions. The analysis focuses on the daily stock prices of the five highest-volume banks listed in the BIST100 index, along with XBANK and XU100 indices, covering the period from January 2015 to March 2025. Models including DLinear, LTSNet, Vanilla Transformer, and Time Series Transformer are employed, with input features enriched by technical indicators. SHAP and LIME techniques are used to provide transparency into the influence of individual features on model outputs. The results demonstrate the strong predictive capabilities of transformer models and highlight the potential of interpretable machine learning to empower individuals in making informed investment decisions and actively engaging in financial markets.


Sacred or Secular? Religious Bias in AI-Generated Financial Advice

Khan, Muhammad Salar, Umer, Hamza

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study examines religious biases in AI-generated financial advice, focusing on ChatGPT's responses to financial queries. Using a prompt-based methodology and content analysis, we find that 50% of the financial emails generated by ChatGPT exhibit religious biases, with explicit biases present in both ingroup and outgroup interactions. While ingroup biases personalize responses based on religious alignment, outgroup biases introduce religious framing that may alienate clients or create ideological friction. These findings align with broader research on AI bias and suggest that ChatGPT is not merely reflecting societal biases but actively shaping financial discourse based on perceived religious identity. Using the Critical Algorithm Studies framework, we argue that ChatGPT functions as a mediator of financial narratives, selectively reinforcing religious perspectives. This study underscores the need for greater transparency, bias mitigation strategies, and regulatory oversight to ensure neutrality in AI-driven financial services.


Identifying Dealbreakers and Robust Policies for the Energy Transition Amid Unexpected Events

Coppitters, Diederik, Wiest, Gabriel, Göke, Leonard, Contino, Francesco, Bardow, André, Moret, Stefano

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Disruptions in energy imports, backlash in social acceptance, and novel technologies failing to develop are unexpected events that are often overlooked in energy planning, despite their ability to jeopardize the energy transition. We propose a method to explore unexpected events and assess their impact on the transition pathway of a large-scale whole-energy system. First, we evaluate unexpected events assuming "perfect foresight", where decision-makers can anticipate such events in advance. This allows us to identify dealbreakers, i.e., conditions that make the transition infeasible. Then, we assess the events under "limited foresight" to evaluate the robustness of early-stage decisions against unforeseen unexpected events and the costs associated with managing them. A case study for Belgium demonstrates that a lack of electrofuel imports in 2050 is the main dealbreaker, while accelerating the deployment of renewables is the most robust policy. Our transferable method can help policymakers identify key dealbreakers and devise robust energy transition policies.


Decision-informed Neural Networks with Large Language Model Integration for Portfolio Optimization

Hwang, Yoontae, Kong, Yaxuan, Zohren, Stefan, Lee, Yongjae

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper addresses the critical disconnect between prediction and decision quality in portfolio optimization by integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) with decision-focused learning. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that minimizing the prediction error alone leads to suboptimal portfolio decisions. We aim to exploit the representational power of LLMs for investment decisions. An attention mechanism processes asset relationships, temporal dependencies, and macro variables, which are then directly integrated into a portfolio optimization layer. This enables the model to capture complex market dynamics and align predictions with the decision objectives. Extensive experiments on S\&P100 and DOW30 datasets show that our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models. In addition, gradient-based analyses show that our model prioritizes the assets most crucial to decision making, thus mitigating the effects of prediction errors on portfolio performance. These findings underscore the value of integrating decision objectives into predictions for more robust and context-aware portfolio management.


INVESTORBENCH: A Benchmark for Financial Decision-Making Tasks with LLM-based Agent

Li, Haohang, Cao, Yupeng, Yu, Yangyang, Javaji, Shashidhar Reddy, Deng, Zhiyang, He, Yueru, Jiang, Yuechen, Zhu, Zining, Subbalakshmi, Koduvayur, Xiong, Guojun, Huang, Jimin, Qian, Lingfei, Peng, Xueqing, Xie, Qianqian, Suchow, Jordan W.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements have underscored the potential of large language model (LLM)-based agents in financial decision-making. Despite this progress, the field currently encounters two main challenges: (1) the lack of a comprehensive LLM agent framework adaptable to a variety of financial tasks, and (2) the absence of standardized benchmarks and consistent datasets for assessing agent performance. To tackle these issues, we introduce \textsc{InvestorBench}, the first benchmark specifically designed for evaluating LLM-based agents in diverse financial decision-making contexts. InvestorBench enhances the versatility of LLM-enabled agents by providing a comprehensive suite of tasks applicable to different financial products, including single equities like stocks, cryptocurrencies and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Additionally, we assess the reasoning and decision-making capabilities of our agent framework using thirteen different LLMs as backbone models, across various market environments and tasks. Furthermore, we have curated a diverse collection of open-source, multi-modal datasets and developed a comprehensive suite of environments for financial decision-making. This establishes a highly accessible platform for evaluating financial agents' performance across various scenarios.


Do LLM Personas Dream of Bull Markets? Comparing Human and AI Investment Strategies Through the Lens of the Five-Factor Model

Borman, Harris, Leontjeva, Anna, Pizzato, Luiz, Jiang, Max Kun, Jermyn, Dan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated the ability to adopt a personality and behave in a human-like manner. There is a large body of research that investigates the behavioural impacts of personality in less obvious areas such as investment attitudes or creative decision making. In this study, we investigated whether an LLM persona with a specific Big Five personality profile would perform an investment task similarly to a human with the same personality traits. We used a simulated investment task to determine if these results could be generalised into actual behaviours. In this simulated environment, our results show these personas produced meaningful behavioural differences in all assessed categories, with these behaviours generally being consistent with expectations derived from human research. We found that LLMs are able to generalise traits into expected behaviours in three areas: learning style, impulsivity and risk appetite while environmental attitudes could not be accurately represented. In addition, we showed that LLMs produce behaviour that is more reflective of human behaviour in a simulation environment compared to a survey environment.